COE SG
COE predictions

COE Predictions: just a bit of fun, not financial advice!

Trying to predict Singapore COE prices is a bit like trying to predict the weather, if the weather occasionally punched you in the face and charged you $120,000 for the privilege.

Every month, people emerge with very confident predictions:

  • “Bro, this round confirm drop. Demand weak.”
  • “No no, supply increase, plus economy slowing.”
  • “Election coming, confirm drop.”

The result, COE goes up another $8,000 for no apparent reason.

Just for a bit of fun we built a pretty simple model to try and predict COE prices. It’s mostly using historical trend data and could be wildly off. Add your own prediction below and see if you can beat the model.

Track record · hindcast
±4.0%
Average miss over the last 24 exercises when the current model is applied to every past exercise using only data available at the time.
Coming up · before bidding closes

Our call · May 2026 · 2nd bidding.

Our model's best guess for each category. Submit your own number and see how it stacks up against the rest of the crowd.

Category A
Small & mid cars
Our guess
$126,200
Your turn
S$
Be the first to guess this category.
Category B
Large cars & EVs
Our guess
$127,000
Your turn
S$
Be the first to guess this category.
Category C
Goods vehicles & buses
Our guess
$91,200
Your turn
S$
Be the first to guess this category.
Category D
Motorcycles
Our guess
$9,900
Your turn
S$
Be the first to guess this category.
Category E
Open category
Our guess
$130,600
Your turn
S$
Be the first to guess this category.
How we did · exercise closed

May 2026 · 1st bidding.

The exercise has closed. Here's the actual result, our guess from before bidding opened, and how far off we were.

Category A
Small & mid cars
Actual
$124,790
+1.4% vs Apr 2026 · 2nd bidding · $123,010
Our guess
$124,100
-0.6%
off the actual
Category B
Large cars & EVs
Actual
$126,236
+4.3% vs Apr 2026 · 2nd bidding · $121,001
Our guess
$121,800
-3.5%
off the actual
Category C
Goods vehicles & buses
Actual
$87,479
+4.8% vs Apr 2026 · 2nd bidding · $83,501
Our guess
$83,900
-4.1%
off the actual
Category D
Motorcycles
Actual
$9,452
+1.7% vs Apr 2026 · 2nd bidding · $9,290
Our guess
$9,400
-0.6%
off the actual
Category E
Open category
Actual
$127,700
+2.2% vs Apr 2026 · 2nd bidding · $125,002
Our guess
$127,800
+0.1%
off the actual
Track record · hindcast

How our model would have done.

We ran the current model on every past exercise using only data available at the time, no peeking at the answer. The solid line is what actually happened; the dashed line is what the model would have called. The gap between them is what we use to refine it.

ActualOur guess
Over 24 exercises in Category A: average miss of 4.9% (≈$5,412).